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发布于:2019-3-6 18:47:55  访问:74 次 回复: 篇
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18 Commercial Real Estate Trends To Dominate In 2019
Goodbye 2018, hi 2019! Since the new year approaches, Bisnow talked with several business execs, researchers and economists to uncover the significant trends expected to dominate the commercial real estate data real estate industry in the upcoming year. By the rise of opportunity zones to a slowdown in industrial absorption, these are 18 tendencies experts predict for 2019.
1. Opportunity Zones Craze To Persist
As investors anticipate finalized guidance from the Department of the Treasury and the IRS concerning the Opportunity Zone program, the search is on for resources and investment opportunities in those designated areas that pose the strongest upside potential. Investors are lining up to pour billions into Opportunity Zone Funds, using a report from Real Capital Analytics stating there`s over $6 trillion in unrealized capital gains qualified to be set up into opportunity zones.
Though the program was created via the departure of this Tax Cuts and Jobs Act annually to drive economic development in underserved communities in exchange for a hefty tax break, research shows many of the census tracts classified as chance zones have already brought a substantial amount of investment ahead of the initiation of the new national plan. Critics of the program worry it`ll accelerate investment in areas already experiencing a surge in development activity, leading to a convergence of investment into burgeoning neighborhoods currently in high demand, and a lack of investment in differently blighted communities.
2. Industrial Boom To Keep Thanks To High Demand From E-Commerce Players, Though A Few Headwinds May Surface
Industrial property demand soared to new heights this year, and CBRE Head of Industrial Research David Egan anticipates more of the exact same in 2019.
"I believe the marketplace has outperformed this year, at least from consumer action. There has been a general expectation for a number of years that this can not last and it turns out that hasn`t been accurate. We`ve got a huge quantity of demand in the marketplace for logistics properties of all kinds; of course the Class-A big-bulk warehouses are exactly what get the majority of the attention, but the demand is quite broad-based and extending all the way down to secondary and tertiary markets," he explained. "My anticipation in 2019 is that we ought to see more or less of the same dynamic."
Net absorption resulting from e-commerce expansion is expected to average between 75M SF and 94M SF, same as this season, according to CBRE`s 2019 Outlook report, and a lack of new supply has driven vacancy amounts down to 4.3%, a historic low.
"According to the requirement that we`re seeing from the e-commerce industry -- as well as from traditional brick-and-mortar retailers which are entering or expanding into the online space -- we could fully anticipate that e-commerce will continue to push the market annually," Bridge Development Partners President Anthony Pricco said. "This is especially true for infill sites proximate to the major population centers. While the rising costs of construction and land could be seen as emerging economy headwinds, the upside of industrial development remains exceptionally powerful, as rents have been appreciating at an even quicker rate."
Egan advised Bisnow that he would not be surprised if internet absorption tapered off in 2019 because of new supply not keeping pace with strong demand amounts.
"You can just absorb what`s available," he said. "While we hope to see supply-demand relatively in check, those growth metrics will continue to be positive."
3. Federal Reserve To Gradually Boost Interest Rates Due To The Power Of The Economy
With solid jobs expansion continuing to grow at a healthy clip and the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%, a 50-year low, Fed officials hint that they`ll probably continue their course of activity in 2019 to slowly boost short-term interest rates to temper inflation and maintain a stable economy.
"Inflation exists over the Fed`s target of 2 percent to 2.5%, with more job openings than jobless and more homebuyers than new housing inventory. The Fed sees inflation ahead and foremost and will continue a hike-pause-hike-pause pattern in 2019 as long as GDP stays above 2 percent and unemployment under 5%," CCIM Institute Chief Economist K.C. Conway said.
The Fed boosted prices three times this year to a range of 2% to 2.25%, and many anticipate central bankers to bulge rates again in December. Big Wall Street banks polled by Reuters expect central bankers to increase rates another three occasions in 2019.
"Although the most recent Fed advice has appeared less definitive on its future course, the market and most analysts anticipate another increase this month and 2 to four next year, as both inflation and wage growth exceed their goals," Colliers International U.S. Chief Economist Andrew Nelson stated.
4.
With the retail industry stabilizing in 2018, CBRE Head Of Global Retail Research Melina Cordero expects retailers to start reinvesting in their physical footprints to achieve the perfect omnichannel buying experience for consumers. In addition, digitally native (or e-commerce only) retailers will progressively shift to open physical shops to cultivate their company and keep more customers, Cordero said.
"In terms of retail and property, I think the retailers have sort of learned things to do. There`s a good deal of investment, changes and closures that needed to occur to adapt to omnichannel. Over 2018 a good deal of these investments finally started paying off.
"What we believe will occur over 2019 is a real return to the store. Retailers are finally starting to realize the value of their real estate -- they can`t just close a store and rely on online, they really require the shop for profit margins, consumer attention, customer acquisition, for many reasons. I believe we`re going to see a great deal of reinvesting in the shop and lots of reinvesting in plans to attempt and get people into the store," Cordero said.
5.
Everybody is watching out for signs of the next downturn, as the economy nears its 10th year of growth -- its longest period of growth ever.
"In the background of U.S. business cycles, downturns have typically occurred within one or two years after the economy has reached full employment," JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist Jim Glassman said. "A careful evaluation of the historical regularity suggests, however, that this routine has been the result of two imbalances -- a construction inflation problem which requires that the Fed to adopt a restrictive policy posture, or unprecedented fiscal imbalances.
"In that respect, there are not any obvious imbalances that have the capability to trigger a recession, so the present expansion is very likely to settle to a protracted period of balanced, noninflationary growth."
Though U.S. economic growth and job gains were strong in 2018, some economists and analysts predict the economy will slow in 2019 because of continued short-term interest rate lumps by the Federal Reserve and waning fiscal stimulus from federal tax cuts.
"The inevitable disruption is most likely the right risk plan mode to maintain for 2019.
6. Investor Demand For U.S. Assets To Keep Transaction Volume Strong
"Though property markets peaked for this cycle in 2015, sales and leasing trade activity remains robust and pricing firm," Nelson informed Bisnow. "Transaction volume through Q3 2018 [has been ] 11% above its level for the similar period this past year and is approaching the entire closed in 2015 -- the peak sales year with this particular cycle.
"While all four core sectors have contributed in this year`s profits, apartment and office -- perennial investor favorites -- have submitted the highest sales totals and the most powerful price appreciation to date. However, both [will] probably slow sharply in the following two years, along with price appreciation and rent growth, since the market slows or even turns negative."
7. Industrywide PropTech Adoption To Accelerate
Commercial property professionals -- from owners and operators to agents and architects -- can no longer deny the effect technology is having on the industry. More real estate companies are embracing the latest innovations to streamline perform tasks and make a more paperless, transparent way of sourcing deals, managing resources, assessing data and closing transactions.
Mihir Shah, co-CEO of JLL Spark -- JLL`s PropTech division with a $100M global fund dedicated to investing in real estate technology firms -- told Bisnow that PropTech companies have become increasingly precious as their products have helped property firms further their own initiatives.
"As a part of the endeavor, we are seeing businesses that normally went through extended RFPs demonstrating interest in new products to see which ones are viable. This helps them establish [return on investment] quicker and assists the winners grow quicker," Shah said.
8.
Requirement for available and affordable workforce housing choices will remain a topic of interest in the multifamily industry, as costly land and development costs make it more difficult to build affordable housing from the bottom up.
"The continuing job growth we`ve been experiencing from the U.S. is having a massive effect on labour housing affordability in major cities. This influx of talent continues to be fueled by the need to be in close proximity to work, the convenience of mass transit options, in addition to the appeal of being at the center of this activity in major metropolitan regions," Brooks explained.
CBRE Americas Head of Multifamily Research Jeanette Rice stated investment in value-add multifamily assets can help alleviate these concerns.
"Workforce housing will even stay appealing in 2019 because of demand outpacing accessible supply, thereby keeping vacancy rates reduced and rental growth over the overall multifamily sector.
"Investor interest will even stay very high in 2019. Interest is coming from all types of funds, such as foreign and institutional funds in addition to traditional sources like smaller buyers. The appetite for workforce housing is quite powerful for the greater property fundamentals and higher yields. Value-add investment will likely still predominate in 2019 and stay mostly successful. Acquisitions of stabilized merchandise are also appealing for some investors, particularly those with longer-term hold horizons," Rice explained.
9.
With aging millennials now hitting their early 30s, many are turning to the suburbs with their households. Over 2.6 million Americans relocated in the city to the suburbs in the previous two decades, according to the U.S. Census Bureau according to ULI. This has revived investor interest and confidence in select non-gateway markets, ULI reports in its own 2019 Trends survey. "Hipsturbias" or even"Urban-burbs" have been used to classify those suburban markets with greater walkability and access to public transit which resemble urban metros.
A U.S. lender senior researcher advised ULI the following:
"The first stage is millennials moving to the suburbs for larger, cheaper homes and access to colleges, so adequate single-family home and multifamily housing will be critical. Retail follows rooftops, so retail growth to meet the new residents` requirements will follow. Finally, you might begin to see more emphasis on job centers as residents decide they want to work closer to where they live."
10.
It comes as no surprise that industrial property assets are an anticipated favorite for investors in 2019, along with multifamily assets, based on ULI`s 2019 Emerging Trends report. Deep-pocketed investors like Blackstone Group continue to gobble up whole portfolios of industrial assets at a rapid pace this year, such as its purchase of industrial REIT Gramercy Property Trust for $7.6B, a portfolio of last-mile logistics assets from Harvard University for nearly $1B and also a portfolio of 41 warehouses from FRP Holdings Inc. for $359M.
More interesting is the fact that retail is expected to attract attention from shareholders in 2019, particularly those resources ripe for redevelopment and updates.
"Many shopping centre properties are just not going to come back as successful retail resources. However, while some are reduced in cost to a mere land value, many are well below replacement cost and also have great places for alternative applications," ULI reports. "If a site is adequately big, mixed-use is a superb alternative for close-in suburbs appearing to exploit maturing millennials` want to enter their following life-cycle phase. There is a chance to turn the tables around the e-commerce trend that fostered the obsolescence by redevelopment into supply facilities."
11. Investors To Keep Flocking To Secondary, Tertiary Markets For Alerts
Commercial property investors on the search for strong risk-adjusted returns continue to skip entry markets to gamble on resources in burgeoning markets that are secondary, and the tendency is likely to continue in 2019.
"Due to the high prices and restricted opportunities in primary U.S. metros, investors are continuing to concentrate more on secondary markets, which are enjoying double-digit increase in investment activity and also much stronger price increases than at the primary (mostly coastal) subway markets," Colliers` Nelson said. "However, those tendencies are likely to reverse if/when we view the economic slowdown, and investors find the security of larger, more liquid markets"
This behavior is typical at a late-stage cycle such as this, CBRE Chairman of Americas Research Spencer Levy stated.
"The disadvantage of this coin is it is standard of late-cycle investment activity that you see a change from primary to secondary in search of returns. What is new is we`ve not seen a compression of returns that would be average in late-market activity," he explained. "What happens is cap rates in primaries and secondaries converge; we have not seen that in retail and office, but we`ve seen that in multifamily. The issue is, is that this tendency lasting during a recession which will occur in another couple of years?"
12. Construction Industry To Continue Grappling With High Prices, Labor Shortage
Rising construction costs were the No. 1 real estate and development concern for respondents that participated in ULI`s Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 surveys. On a scale of one to five, five of the greatest importance, construction costs ranked 4.59, with property prices and housing costs and availability following near at 4.14 and 4, ULI reports.
"Growing construction costs could possibly be the most understood narrative of 2018 that has to grow to be a material story in 2019," CCIM`s Conway said. Conway identified a number of factors exacerbating cost and labor challenges in the construction business, such as a decline in immigrant construction laborers following the financial crisis, loony superstorms as a consequence of climate change which has resulted in enormous rebuilding efforts across the country, along with tariffs and the transaction warfare.
"Essential materials such as steel,... toilet fittings from China, timber from Canada, etc., are impacted. Pay attention to the quarterly earnings reports from building materials companies regarding the kind of input cost increases being experienced. Caterpillar, for instance, reported solid earnings in Q3 2018, but a large rise in material inputs like steel. The result is rising pressure on margins.
"That is the important takeaway regarding building labour and material costs increases -- margins are going to be squeezed, cost overruns incurred, and worth under pressure unless rents and [net operating income] can be raised to cover the increasing costs of new construction," Conway said.
13. U.S. Office Real Estate Markets To Remain Stable, Though Demand May Slow
CBRE stated in its 2019 U.S. Outlook report that workplace net absorption is predicted to reach 37M SF in 2019, representing the sector`s 10th consecutive year of positive absorption. Should the country continue to experience strong office-using job growth in the new year, it might cause strong absorption rates and renewed interest from investors.
"One part of office property expansion is the demand for more office space near amusement venues and other comforts. These office buildings are relying upon smaller, more flexible workspaces. Working spaces also are becoming more prevalent as professionals select other working methods," Green told Bishop.
Nevertheless, Colliers` Nelson expects office demand will taper off in response to a slowdown in job development and robust supply levels.
"Demand for office space will medium in reaction to slower job development, just as a significant volume of projects already under construction begins to enter the current market," Nelson said.
14. Retail Bankruptcies To Immediately, Retailer Earnings To Stabilize
"The retail real estate business has undergone significant change in the last couple of decades, and the transformation is deep and will last throughout 2019. The convergence of brick-and-mortar and online retail will continue to create major seismic shifts in the industry," TD Bank Head of Commercial Real Estate Gregg Gerken told Bishop.
Though a tide of retailers filed for insolvency and shuttered stores this season -- such as Sears, Mattress Company, Nine West and Claire`s -- the circumstances surrounding most shop closures next year ought to be enormously different, CBRE`s Cordero said.
"I feel the general industry sentiment is that 2017 was probably the summit [for retail closures]. I think there`ll continue to become closers in 2019 -- it`s difficult to say whether we`ll have more or less -- but I would say a lot of the closures that we`ll see in 2019 will be about that which we predict portfolio rationalization or optimization than they`re about retailers that are failing.
"Retailers in lots of cases do need to shut shops to reorient their portfolios -- therefore I do anticipate closures in 2019, but I don`t really [connect ] a great deal of these closures as dying or neglecting retail, it is more of morphing and adjusting retail," Cordero said.
15. Multistory Warehouse Development From The U.S. To Accelerate
Requirements have ripened for multistory warehouse growth from the U.S., and this trend will continue into 2019. Facilities are detained or have delivered in Seattle, San Francisco, New York, Miami and Chicago. Even though multistory warehouses are nothing new in Europe and Asia, the U.S. is at the beginning stages of developing these types of facilities now that construction prices are no longer as cheap and there is less available land than in earlier times CBRE`s Levy explained. Unprecedented demand for warehouse and logistics space now has changed this dynamic.
"The rents that are being attained in such multistory industrial [facilities] could be just two or three times what you`re seeing in traditional industrial. We think this particular tendency is simply in the start in the United States," Levy explained.
Although the lumps in lease are significant, CBRE Head of Industrial Research David Egan said these multistory facilities also can present operational challenges for users.
"The users will have to change the way they function in these buildings to make it work effectively," he said. "The operational issues are not small -- to alter the way that they move stock in and outside of those buildings is not a small little tweak"
16. Grocery Chains To Proceed Additional Online, Expand Their Online Offerings With The Help Of Tech
Up to now, delivering fresh groceries to consumers` doors has turned into a fairly nascent concept -- and it`s no easy task. Grocers already combat low profit margins because of progressively declining food costs and fresh low-cost rivals like Aldi entering the market. These challenges, coupled with costly online delivery costs, has maintained online grocery delivery in its infancy. But CBRE`s Cordero sees that tendency changing in 2019.
"Grocery is likely, among all of the retail classes, among the lowest for internet penetration. We think because of a combination of technological advancement, investment on the part of retailers and customer demand, that we`re likely to see a fairly significant shift next year in grocery going online and retailers that offer more to customers in that domain," she explained.
17. Economic Development Teams Across the Nation Continue To Feel The Impact Of HQ2 Competition
"An open competition like the Amazon HQ2 search is an opportunity for communities to redefine their heritage image and showcase what is different in their economy now versus 10, 20 or even 30 years ago. The 238 communities which collaborated for the Amazon HQ2 are decreasing economic development consequently," CCIM`s Conway said.
"Amazon is using the information to site select new fulfillment centers in places like Tucson, Arizona, and Birmingham, Alabama. Other major transport and e-commerce businesses, like Norfolk Southern Railroad, have utilized the data to make a relocation choice (in Norfolk Southern`s case, to Atlanta, which was among the 20 finalist cities for Amazon HQ2). To put it differently, the Amazon HQ2 search was to economic growth precisely what the census is to demographics."
18. U.S. Hotel Occupancy To Split Records In 2019
Occupancy levels are expected to spike to 66.2% following year, the 10th successive year of expansion. This increase will be driven by a 2.1% growth in demand to offset the incoming supply.
"Although the hospitality sector continues to grow, the markets in which Quadrum is active will remain relatively flat given their higher-than-national average occupancy prices. While ordinary daily rates are increasing nationwide, the industry will face some challenges due to the rapid adoption of apps which provide discounted rates."
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